Project deadline forecast

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Request: If hiring stays frozen next quarter, which projects are most likely to miss their deadlines?

Atlas is the most exposed project under the hiring freeze. Its remaining demand exceeds assigned capacity by 120 hours, equivalent to two planning weeks at its expected completion rate. Beacon and Cedar are balanced against their current allocations, but neither has spare capacity.

Across all three projects, the portfolio needs 1,560 hours and has 1,440 available. This is an effort-based planning forecast, not a probability of delay: it assumes the estimates are accurate, skills are interchangeable where noted, and no additional scope arrives. Leave, support interruptions, and dependencies can make the dates worse.

I recommend presenting the Atlas gap explicitly rather than labelling every project on track. Reassigning one engineer for four weeks can protect Atlas, but it transfers the same shortfall to Beacon. The portfolio owner needs to choose a priority, reduce scope, or secure additional capacity. The scenario comparison shows where the risk moves; it does not suggest that reassignment creates new hours.